学校2015
大回调甚至跌停！乙二醇的支撑消失了？_我的网站
一 | 
作者：郑邮飞/F0284348、Z0010566/ 一德期货能源化工分析师 要点速览版 做多关键因素消失，甚至逐步进入过剩格局。
二 | 短期价格在悲观情绪释放后仍存一定支撑。
Coronavirus hospitalizations in the U.S. are increasing with no sign of slowing.
The week ending Aug. 19 saw more than 15,000 new COVID-19 hospital admissions, according to the latest data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. It’s nearly a 19% increase over the previous week and the sixth straight week of growing numbers.
The summer increase remains small compared to previous coronavirus waves in the U.S. Still, it is the first time since winter that the country has experienced growing COVID-19 cases and hospitalizations, and new coronavirus variants have caught the attention of officials.
EG.5, or “eris,” is now the dominant strain circulating in the U.S. It was responsible for more than 20% of new infections in recent weeks, according to CDC data.
The World Health Organization has designated EG.5 a “variant of interest” after it displayed a steady increase globally.
The organization assessed EG.5’s public health risk as “low at the global level,” which is the same designation as the so-called “arcturus” strain.
However, WHO warned that “due to its growth advantage and immune escape characteristics, EG.5 may cause a rise in case incidence and become dominant in some countries or even globally.”
Another new strain, BA.2.86, has been documented in the U.S. Details on the highly mutated strain are scarce, but researchers are watching it closely.
The CDC said in a risk assessment of BA.2.86 that it is likely not responsible for the current rise in COVID-19 hospitalizations and that it is too soon to know the new strain’s transmissibility or severity.
。 最近的乙二醇堪称市场的明星品种，8月6日以来涨势如虹，得益于其基本面强劲支撑。 支撑因素分析 最关键的影响因素仍是海峡持续封锁，导致中东特别是沙特的货物难以运出，我国乙二醇进口自3月份以来持续下滑，预计9月份进口仍难有大的恢复，10月份进口需要看随后地缘缓解后是否有货物运出。 乙二醇供应缺失大于需求增量，尽管聚酯前期开工率低于去年，但长丝开工仍有韧性。 库存持续去化至近几年同期低位水平，偏低的库存进一步提高了价格弹性。 临近交割月时，供应特别是进口短期内大幅恢复概率较小，较低的库存以及终端的开工韧性导致短期乙二醇矛盾难解，吸引资金大幅入场。 后市展望 后期来看，近月乙二醇的矛盾只能通过挤压需求来实现硬平衡，同时配合国内供应略有边际恢复。经测算，聚酯开工需要降到77-78%左右才能实现乙二醇短期的相对平衡。
三 | 进入9月份，终端瓶片和短纤已经有装置预期停车，同时受利润和原料的制约。
四 | 未来海峡仍是基本面关注的重点，隔夜海峡局势出现一定的缓解。如果乙二醇进口恢复顺利，做多的关键因素将消失，甚至逐步进入过剩格局，但是如果未来海峡问题仍存在一定的反复，预计短期价格在悲观情绪释放后仍存在一定的支撑。 乙二醇库存 编辑：武宇杰 审核：赵洪虎/F0303315、Z0012132/ 复核：于心悦 报告完成日期：2026年8月26日 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可〔2012〕38号责任编辑：李铁民。
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Published on:20:26:50